Strategic Report for the Arab Region 2023 – Border Threats: Jordan’s Most Prominent Challenge in 2023-2024
Introduction
Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, “He taught man that which he did not know.”
With the end of 2023 and the beginning of a new year, the world and its international and regional system are still experiencing a state of turmoil and conflict, as if the signs of a global clash are increasing, as the Al-Aqsa flood that overflowed on October 7, 2023, was a turning point in the polarization and strategic conflict in the region, as the Palestinian issue became a central issue for the world and the future, and not only a central issue for the Islamic world.
The Al-Aqsa flood brought about changes and developments on the political, strategic, legal and humanitarian levels.
The structure of the global system, which was built on a set of international systems and laws, is on the verge of collapse. In fact, all the legal and moral components of this system have fallen due to the United States and its Western allies standing in the immoral war waged by the Zionist entity occupying Palestine, supported by the American war machine and NATO. It has also proven the inability of international organizations, and even international powers such as Russia and China, to change the reality of the aggression and injustice against the besieged people of Gaza. All the masks of the civilized Western world have fallen, and all Arab and Islamic regimes have failed to change or dismantle the siege imposed on nearly two million people besieged in Gaza. The most important variable observed during this year is the moral and civilizational variable of global values and the global system that emerged after World War II and was led by the United States and its Western allies. Despite this, positive indicators have been observed in the Arab region, where regional reconciliations continued, most notably the Saudi-Iranian agreement and attempts to reduce the intensity of the internal conflict in Libya, Yemen and Syria, as well as tensions between Algeria and Morocco, with the development of Turkish-Gulf and Egyptian relations. In addition, the intensity of polarization has increased. Sectarianism in the region has subsided relatively, but the outbreak of war in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces supported by external parties has increased tensions in the Horn of Africa region, in addition to the possibility of the war expanding into the Red Sea and the Middle East, with the continuation of the Israeli aggression on Gaza. This led to confusion in the continuation of the normalization process with the Zionist entity and increased the risk of the United States slipping into a war in the Middle East a year before the elections by supporting the Zionist entity. On the other hand, the year 2023 witnessed an increase in competition between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates over the leadership of the Arab system. However, Qatar distinguished itself with its developing diplomacy as a mediator in a group of files, the most important of which was leading the negotiations between Hamas and the Zionist entity regarding the release of Zionist prisoners in the Gaza war, which created an important international position for it. Meanwhile, the Palestinian resistance led by Hamas played a vital role in restoring the Palestinian issue as a major issue again. Rather, it represented hope for the Arab peoples and restoring the role and position in confronting the Zionist enemy, and injecting vitality into it again. However, the challenges of displacement in the West Bank and Gaza remain a major threat that casts a shadow over the Palestinian and Arab situation, with increasing security challenges, in light of the disintegration and failure of the Arab systems in a unified strategic action. We are pleased at the Strategic Thinking Association to put in the hands of the Arab public, elites, researchers and specialists our ninth strategic report, which was produced by a group of experts and researchers, friends of the association and its centers in the group. It is a collaborative effort to develop the horizon of strategic thinking and awareness for youth sectors and the audience of specialists and researchers in universities and research centers in the Arab region, in addition to a large group of activities, projects, initiatives, camps and courses that the association has carried out to create a balanced strategic awareness environment, in preparing a generation of Arab and Islamic youth to play a role in developing countries and homelands with awareness and balance in the face of the chaos of global, regional and local strategic developments and changes that are striking the region with their storms. Finally, I extend my sincere thanks to all the research brothers who produced this report and to the brothers who followed up on the plan to implement this report in the association, which is represented in 5 main issues (the Arab Status Report (3 parts) – the Regional and International Status Report – the General Status Report). Wishing all researchers, followers, readers, civil and governmental institutions to benefit from this annual report, and that peace and security prevail in the homelands and bodies, by the protection of the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.
Mohammed Salem Al-Rashed
Head of the Strategic Thinking Group
